By Chioma Obinagwam
Naira fall hits Nigerian women’s wallets
Adaeze and Chisom had been friends since their Unizik days. Both moved to Lagos. Both ran small businesses. Adaeze sold fabrics in Surulere. Chisom catered for corporate offices from her home in Gbagada.
Same hustle. Very different financial outcomes.
When the Exchange Rate Makes No Sense
One Tuesday morning, Chisom called Adaeze in a panic.
“Ada, the news says the naira has fallen again. What does that even mean for me? I don’t deal in dollars. I sell jollof rice.”
Adaeze laughed softly. “Come to my shop this evening. That is exactly what I thought three years ago.”
Naira rates affect every Nigerian business
That evening, Adaeze got straight to the point.
“Chisom, what do you use to cook? Gas, tomato paste, seasoning, packaging nylon, right?”
“Yes.”
“All of those have dollar prices somewhere in their supply chain. The gas. The imported seasoning. The nylon. Even the fuel that powers the generator at the market where you buy your produce. When the naira weakens against the dollar, the importer pays more naira to buy the same goods. So they raise their prices. The market raises prices. And before you know it, your cost of cooking one pot of jollof rice has gone up, but your clients are still paying last month’s rate.”
Chisom stared. “So I’m losing money without even knowing it?”
“Exactly,” Adaeze said. “Today, the official exchange rate is around ₦1,357 to one dollar. In the open market, it is between ₦1,410 and ₦1,415. Now think about this. If a bag of imported rice costs $10 at the source, that is roughly ₦14,100 at today’s open market rate. If the naira slips to ₦1,600 per dollar next month, that same bag now costs ₦16,000. You haven’t changed what you sell. But your costs have jumped by almost ₦2,000 on a single bag.”
“And the naira can fall that fast?” Chisom asked.
“It has before,” Adaeze said. “In 2024, it went from around ₦900 to over ₦1,500 within months. Anyone who didn’t adjust their prices during that period was quietly running at a loss.”
Exchange rate pass-through: Two to eight weeks
“So what do I do the moment I see that news?” Chisom asked.
“You do what I do,” Adaeze said. “You pull out your cost sheet the same week. You look at every input: gas, ingredients, packaging, transport. You ask yourself which of these will rise in the next month. And you adjust your prices before the market forces you to. The price increase from a naira drop usually reaches the consumer within two to eight weeks. If you wait for the market woman to raise her prices before you act, you have already lost.”
Chisom was quiet. Then she said: “I didn’t raise my prices for two months the last time the naira fell. I just absorbed it.”
“I know,” Adaeze said. “I did the same thing in 2022. We learn.”
Exchange rate, financial decisions
Three months later, when the naira dipped again, Chisom did not panic. She opened her cost sheet, recalculated her pricing, updated her corporate clients two weeks in advance, and protected her margins.
She called Adaeze on a Friday evening.
“I adjusted my prices this week,” she said. “Before anybody told me to.”
Adaeze smiled. “That is all it takes. Read the news like it is a signal. Then move before it moves you.”
What to implement
The official naira rate is around ₦1,357 per dollar. The open market rate is ₦1,410 to ₦1,415. If you see the naira drop significantly from these levels, review your business costs and personal budget that same week. Price increases typically follow within two to eight weeks. Do not wait for the market to tell you. Tell yourself first.
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