Nigeria’s boldest budget yet, and a civic watchdog says the government cannot pay for it.
By Chioma Obinagwam
Nigeria cannot pay for nearly half of its own budget.
Confiance News reports that it is the verdict from BudgIT, a civic-tech organisation tracking government spending, which has flagged the Federal Government’s N68.32 trillion 2026 budget as fiscally unsustainable and structurally flawed.
Budget Grew by N9.09tn After Senate Intervention
Documents sighted by Confiance News reveal that the 2026 budget began as a N58.47 trillion proposal before the Senate, acting on a request from President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, approved an upward revision of approximately N9.09 trillion, bringing total expenditure to N68.32 trillion. It is the largest budget in Nigeria’s history.
With projected revenue fixed at N36.87 trillion, the government faces a fiscal deficit of N31.45 trillion, equivalent to 6.41% of GDP. That figure is more than double the 3% ceiling prescribed by the Fiscal Responsibility Act.
In practical terms, Confiance News gathered, the government can independently finance only 53.9% of its spending plan. The remaining 46.1% depends on borrowing and loans.
Debt Servicing Swallows N15.8tn
The expenditure structure reviewed by Confiance News shows capital spending at N32.28 trillion, accounting for 47.13% of total outlay. However, debt servicing obligations at N15.8 trillion consume roughly 23% of total expenditure and nearly 45% of projected revenue, drastically limiting available fiscal space.
Health and Education Remain Critically Underfunded
Sectoral figures confirmed by Confiance News indicate that security receives N6.98 trillion, representing 10.21% of the budget. Health, meanwhile, accounts for just 5.2%, well short of the 15% Abuja Declaration benchmark Nigeria committed to in 2001. Education receives approximately 4%, below internationally recognised standards.
BudgIT noted the direct consequences of these gaps, pointing to a health system heavily dependent on out-of-pocket spending and an education crisis involving over 18 million out-of-school children.
Expert Warns of Political Budget Risk Ahead of 2027 Elections
Adejoke Akinbode, BudgIT’s Head of Research and Policy Advisory, was quoted as stating that the budget reflects a government attempting to balance growth ambitions against fiscal realities, but constrained by structural inefficiencies.
”Nigeria’s challenge is not just revenue generation, but revenue realism, expenditure discipline, sound debt management and institutional credibility,” Akinbode said.
She added a pointed warning with elections approaching. “There are concerns that the budget may bear characteristics of a politically motivated, pre-election spending framework designed to maximise short-term visibility rather than long-term national value,” she said.
BudgIT Issues Four-Point Demand to Government
In a statement signed by Country Director, Vahyala Kwaga, and made available to Confiance News, BudgIT called on the federal government to enforce zero tolerance for extra-budgetary and off-book expenditures, and to implement a strict prioritisation framework directing limited public resources toward high-impact, economically catalytic projects.
The organisation also pressed for timely and accessible fiscal execution reports, noting that approved budgets in Nigeria have historically not translated to verifiable performance, with fund releases described as opaque and untraceable.
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