Who caused the blackouts? IKEDC, TCN, NISO and NNPC clash

‎𝗡𝗡𝗣𝗖 𝗱𝗶𝘀𝗽𝘂𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗴𝗮𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘁 𝗰𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗺 𝗮𝘀 𝗯𝗹𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗴𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝘄𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘀
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‎· Nigeria’s power supply is shrinking, and three agencies now point in three different directions.

‎· NISO cites gas and water shortfalls, TCN rejects IKEDC’s “grid instability” claim, and NNPC says its gas pipelines face no constraints.

‎· With each party disowning the problem, who will take responsibility for the blackouts?
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‎The blame game over Nigeria’s electricity shortfall escalated this week. The Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) publicly rejected Ikeja Electric’s (IKEDC) claim that “grid instability” caused a wave of Band A outages. The rebuttal, sighted by Confiance News, came a day after the Nigerian Independent System Operator (NISO) explained why generation has fallen. A separate statement from NNPC Limited has since complicated the picture.
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‎𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗜𝗞𝗘𝗗𝗖 𝘁𝗼𝗹𝗱 𝗰𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗿𝘀
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‎The IKEDC notice, obtained by Confiance News, runs to three pages. It apologises for falling short of the 20-hour minimum service level on the Band A feeders listed. For each feeder, the table shows the area served, hours of supply recorded on two days, the reason for the outage and the party responsible.
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‎For the overwhelming majority of entries, the stated reason is “outage due to grid instability” and the party responsible is TCN. Many feeders recorded far fewer than 20 hours, with some in single digits. The notice is signed by management and dated November 6, 2026. TCN, however, says it was published on November 5.
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‎Several entries tell a different story. A handful of feeders carry joint attributions, with IKEDC citing an 11kV fault, a 33kV fault, line maintenance or a power transformer limitation, alongside TCN’s “grid instability”. A few others are assigned to IKEDC alone, including the MTN data centre feeder, which shows zero hours of supply on both days because of a 33kV fault.
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‎𝗚𝗮𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘁𝘀
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‎In a statement dated November 5, 2026, and obtained by Confiance News, NISO said the current decline in generation is primarily linked to two problems. Thermal power stations are struggling with limited gas supply. Hydroelectric stations, meanwhile, are producing less because reservoir inflows have dropped.
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‎Consequently, the energy allocated to Distribution Companies (DisCos) has shrunk. NISO said this has meant fewer hours of supply and heavier load shedding across distribution networks. However, the impact varies, since each DisCo’s pain depends on available generation and its own allocation.
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‎𝗡𝗡𝗣𝗖 𝗱𝗶𝘀𝗽𝘂𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗴𝗮𝘀 𝗰𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗺
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‎Then NNPC Limited weighed in. In a press statement dated November 7, 2026, and obtained by Confiance News, the company said the gas transportation network run by its subsidiary, NNPC Gas Infrastructure Company Limited (NGIC), remains available to support deliveries to power stations nationwide “without any constraints”. NGIC’s operational records, it said, show no transportation-related problem that explains the fall in electricity generation.
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‎NNPC also pointed to growth on the supply side. By its account, gas production volumes are up about 10% so far in 2026, so gas availability “is therefore not a challenge”.
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‎Notably, the company stopped short of calling NISO wrong outright. NNPC stressed that its clarification covers only the transportation network. Gas production, commercial supply arrangements and actual deliveries to individual power plants, it said, must be assessed separately.
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‎Furthermore, NNPC argued that a full assessment must examine the readiness of generating units, plant maintenance schedules and actual gas offtake. These factors, it said, decide whether supplied gas becomes electricity. The statement, signed by Chief Corporate Communications Officer Andy Odeh, called for a coordinated review of operational data by gas suppliers, transporters, generators and NISO.
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‎In effect, NNPC has pushed part of the question back toward power plants and the wider gas-to-power chain. Confiance News could not confirm whether NISO had responded at the time of filing.
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‎𝗧𝗖𝗡 𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗻𝘀 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝗲
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‎Then came the escalation. According to a statement signed by TCN management on November 6 and sighted by Confiance News, the company took issue with IKEDC’s public notice, which it said attributed Band A feeder outages recorded on November 3 and 4 to “grid instability” and named TCN as responsible.
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‎TCN did not mince words. It described the attribution as “inaccurate and misleading” and laid out its case in four points.
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‎𝗪𝗵𝗼 𝗱𝗲𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀 𝗿𝗼𝗼𝘁 𝗰𝗮𝘂𝘀𝗲?
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‎First, TCN argued that IKEDC overstepped. Citing Section 67 of the Electricity Act 2023, the company said determining the root cause of disturbances, shortfalls and interruptions on the national grid belongs exclusively to NISO. A DisCo, it insisted, has no such authority. TCN added that NISO has made no determination blaming TCN for the outages in IKEDC’s notice.
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‎Second, TCN pointed back to NISO’s own explanation. In its view, the shortfall in supply to IKEDC customers flows from reduced generation and the resulting allocation, not from a failure of the transmission network. TCN stressed that it can only transmit the energy made available to it, and it cannot move power that was never generated.
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‎𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗻𝘂𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗮𝗴𝗲𝘀
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‎Perhaps the most striking part of the statement is the data. TCN said its records for all feeders supplying IKEDC tell a clear story. Of the interruptions recorded on November 1 and 2:
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‎· 68% were frequency-control load-shedding arising from low generation.
‎· 26% were linked to IKEDC’s non-compliance with load allocation by NISO’s National Control Centre (NCC), or to faults and works on IKEDC’s own network.
‎· 6% were TCN planned maintenance, switching or a line limitation.
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‎Notably, TCN said none of the recorded interruptions was a TCN equipment fault or trip. One caveat is worth flagging. TCN’s dataset covers November 1 and 2, while the notice reviewed by Confiance News reports availability for November 4 and 5. TCN did not explain the gap.
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‎𝗙𝗲𝗲𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝗯𝘆 𝗳𝗲𝗲𝗱𝗲𝗿
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‎TCN then examined the 33kV feeders named in IKEDC’s own notice. By its count, there were 46 interruptions on those feeders. Of these, 29 were frequency-control load-shedding triggered by low generation. Another 14 were recorded against IKEDC, comprising 9 for non-compliance with load allocation and 5 for faults or trips on its own network. The last 3 were scheduled TCN maintenance on the Ogba to Alimosho line on November 1.
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‎TCN also said the Rack Centre feeder was interrupted on November 2 by a cable fault on IKEDC’s network, which IKEDC’s own crew repaired. It added that IKEDC’s notice itself assigns several feeders, including MTN, Iju Water Works and Rack Centre, to IKEDC for 33kV faults.
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‎Confiance News’ review of the notice partly supports this. The MTN feeder is indeed assigned to IKEDC for a 33kV fault. However, the Iju Water Works feeder appears on the copy reviewed as “outage due to grid instability” with TCN responsible, and Confiance News could not locate a Rack Centre entry. TCN had not clarified the discrepancy at the time of filing.
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‎𝗜𝗞𝗘𝗗𝗖’𝘀 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲
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‎Interestingly, a separate IKEDC notice reviewed by Confiance News tells a different story. Dated October 19, 2026, and titled “Power supply constraints due to reduced grid allocation,” it told customers that reduced hours of supply were due to a shortfall in the power allocated to its network from the national grid.
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‎That notice did not mention grid instability or name TCN. Instead, IKEDC said it was engaging relevant stakeholders and would distribute the power it receives “as efficiently and equitably as possible.” On its face, that explanation sits closer to NISO’s account of reduced generation than to the “grid instability” claim now in dispute. However, the two notices are weeks apart and may address different outage episodes.
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‎𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝘅𝘁
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‎TCN’s message to the industry was blunt. It urged IKEDC and all other DisCos to “desist forthwith” from making unfounded claims about the causes of supply shortfalls. Such claims, it said, misinform customers, undermine public confidence and obscure the real challenges. It asked DisCos to communicate based on verified information from NISO, and it directed consumers to NISO’s official platforms for updates.
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‎At the same time, TCN struck a conciliatory note. It sympathised with affected customers and promised to keep transmitting all available energy while working with NISO, generation companies and DisCos.
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‎IKEDC had not publicly responded to TCN’s claims at the time of filing, as far as Confiance News could confirm. For the millions of Nigerians sitting in the dark, the finger-pointing offers little comfort. NISO points to gas, NNPC points to the power plants, TCN points to generation, and IKEDC has pointed in two directions. Until the operators agree on where the shortfall begins, the real fight may be against a supply gap that no one is willing to own.
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