Fiscal Sustainability: Bayelsa, Osun others rank lowest

By Chioma Obinagwam

BudgIT, a civic advocacy society that uses technology to intersect citizen-engagement with improved governance has said that Bayelsa, Osun, Ekiti and Plateau rank lowest in its 2020 edition of states fiscal sustainability index.

BudgIT told Confiance News in a statement on Thursday.

“Rivers State tops ranking, followed closely by Anambra, Ogun and Lagos. Bayelsa, Osun, Ekiti and Plateau rank lowest,” BudgIT disclosed.

“This report is BudgIT’s signature analysis that provides policy makers with robust insights on ways to implement financial and institutional reforms that will improve states’ fiscal performance and sustainability level, “It continued.

The report titled ‘Fiscal Sustainability and Epidemic Preparedness Financing at the State level’, showed that soaring debt burden, imprudent fiscal planning, and nearly a decade of misplaced expenditure priorities have beaten a clear path to fiscal crisis for many Nigerian states.

“This is veritably evident in our just released 2020 Fiscal Sustainability Index where some states rank higher than others and most are still below the sustainability point. Rivers state occupies the number #1 position on the index, followed by Anambra, Ogun and Lagos. Among the States that are not fiscally sustainable, Bayelsa, Osun, Ekiti and Plateau occupy the least positions,” it highlighted.

According to its 2020 State of States analysis, 13 states were unable to fund their recurrent expenditure obligations together with their loan repayment schedules due in 2019 with their respective total revenues.

It noted that the worst hit of these 13 states are Oyo, Kogi, Osun and Ekiti States while the other states on this pendulum are Plateau, Adamawa, Bauchi, Gombe, Cross River, Benue, Taraba and Abia.

BudgIT also disclosed that of the remaining 23 states that can meet recurrent expenditure and loan repayment schedules with their total revenue, eight of those states had really low (less than N6 billion) excess revenue, that they had to borrow heavily to fund their capital projects. The worst hit are Zamfara, Ondo and Kwara who had N782.45 million, N788.22 million and N1.48 billion left, respectively.

The civic group noted that based on their fiscal analysis, only five states – Rivers, Kaduna, Akwa Ibom, Ebonyi and Kebbi states – prioritised capital expenditure over recurrent obligations while 31 states prioritised recurrent expenditure according to their 2019 financial statements.

“Recurrent expenditures are not necessarily a bad thing, especially when skewed towards sectors like Health and Education. However, nine of the states in this category had overhead costs that were larger than their capital expenditures. These states are: Ekiti, Kogi, Kano, Plateau, Kwara, Nasarawa, Taraba, Adamawa and Benue,” Said Abel Akeni, BudgIT’s Research Lead.

All 36 states’ debts surged by 162.87 percent (N3.34 trillion), from N2.05 trillion in 2014 to N5.39 trillion in 2019, with 10 states accounting for approximately half or N1.68 trillion of this increase. Seven of these states are from the South while three are from the North.

“To achieve fiscal sustainability , states need to grow their IGR as options for borrowing are reduced due to debt ceilings put in place by the Federal Government to prevent states from slipping into a debt crisis. There has to be a shift from the culture of states’ overdependence on FAAC,” Said Damilola Ogundipe, BudgIT’s Communications Lead.

“On subnational epidemic preparedness, it is important for states to prioritize health financing especially on Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH). While COVID19 has garnered major attention in the last few months, it is worthy of note that states are currently battling at least six other deadly diseases which already have vaccines or known treatment,” it advised.

In 2019, the statement disclosed, all 36 states recorded 94,500 cases of the deadly Cerebrospinal meningitis (CSM), measles, lassa fever, yellow fever, monkeypox and cholera combined.

However, BudgIT noted that it is in the self interests of State Governments to grow their IGR and also invest in appropriate health systems through their budgets and other sustainable methods.

BudgIT’s Principal Lead, Gabriel Okeowo, noted that though some States have seen some improvement in their IGR between 2014 and 2019, there is still a need to put systems in place for aggressive IGR growth within the subnational economies, especially as falling crude oil prices, OPEC production cuts and other COVID-19 induced headwinds are set to impact Federal Allocations over the next two years. This paints a bleak outlook for Nigerian states who depend on FAAC allocation for their survival, even though dwindling revenue will affect all states differently.

“Three states – Bayelsa, Borno and Katsina – will be worst hit by dwindling revenue as they relied on Net FAAC for 89.56 percent, 88.30 percent and 88.16 percent of their total revenues, respectively in 2019. Lagos, Ogun and Rivers state will be least affected as they relied on Federal Allocation (Net FAAC) for only 22.82 percent, 35.31 percent and 53.02 percent of their total revenues, respectively,” it revealed.

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