By Chioma Obinagwam
On a Tuesday morning in Ajegunle, a low-income neighbourhood in Lagos, Mama Bisola Balogun stared at the empty cooking gas cylinder on her kitchen floor. Three weeks ago, she had paid N6,500 to fill it. This morning, her gas vendor quoted her N8,500 for the same refill.
She did not argue. She simply placed the cylinder in the corner and reached for her kerosene.
“I do not understand what is happening,” she told her neighbour, Baba Kelechi, a tricycle rider whose full tank of petrol now costs nearly N8,000 where he used to pay N4,700. “They say America and Iran are fighting. But what does that war have to do with my gas?”
The answer is everything. A war fought thousands of kilometres away is now sitting inside every Nigerian home.
The Day the World Caught Fire
Just before dawn on February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a coordinated military campaign against Iran, codenamed Operation Epic Fury. American B-2 bombers and Israeli fighter jets struck hundreds of Iranian military and nuclear facilities. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, was killed in the opening hours.
Iran’s response was swift. Its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC, launched retaliatory missile and drone attacks across the Gulf. Then came the move that changed everything: the IRGC closed the Strait of Hormuz. No vessel would be allowed to pass.
The Chokepoint That Rules the World
The Strait of Hormuz is a 39-kilometre waterway sandwiched between Iran and Oman. On any normal day, roughly 100 vessels transit it, 60 to 70 percent of them oil tankers. Approximately 20 percent of all the oil the world consumes, around 20 million barrels per day, passes through this single narrow passage.
When the IRGC shut it down, tanker traffic collapsed almost immediately. Major shipping giants including Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd suspended all transits. The International Energy Agency described the closure as the largest disruption to global energy supply since the 1970s oil crisis. That crisis caused a global recession. This one, experts warned, could be worse.
The Giant Washington Underestimated
Iran is not simply a Middle Eastern nation. It is a civilisational power covering 1.6 million square kilometres, sharing borders with Iraq, Turkey, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Its 2,400-kilometre southern coastline along the Persian Gulf gives it unique control over the strait. It sits on the world’s second-largest natural gas reserves and fourth-largest proven oil reserves. Through its network of proxy militias across Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Gaza, Iran projects power far beyond its borders.
Washington’s calculation in striking Iran was to destroy its nuclear programme and neutralise its missiles. What America underestimated was that Iran did not need a nuclear weapon to shut down one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. It needed only its navy, its mines, and its coastline.
Nigeria and America: Closer Than You Think
Nigeria and the United States are more economically intertwined than most Nigerians realise. Bilateral trade exceeds 10 billion dollars annually. In the first eight months of 2025 alone, Nigeria shipped 33.23 million barrels of crude oil to the US, valued at approximately 2.57 billion dollars, making it the leading African crude exporter to America. Nigerian crude is light, low in sulphur, and exactly what East Coast American refineries prefer.
Beyond oil, the two countries cooperate on counterterrorism through AFRICOM, and American companies invest significantly in Nigerian fintech, agriculture, and manufacturing. For Nigeria, US demand for its crude provides critical foreign exchange that helps fund public finances and supports the naira. Whatever happens in America’s wars, Nigeria feels the tremor.
The Pump Price Breaking Nigerian Homes
When the strait closed, Brent crude prices did not simply rise. They exploded, jumping from around 70 dollars per barrel before the war to over 110 dollars within days. The IRGC’s spokesperson warned bluntly: “Expect oil at 200 dollars per barrel.”
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery, Nigeria’s great hope for energy independence, responded as any market-driven refinery must. It raised its gantry prices. Petrol climbed from N837 per litre to N1,300 in some locations. Diesel moved from N1,200 to N1,620. Cooking gas rose from N1,000 per kilogram to N1,200, with cylinder refill prices in Lagos and Abuja nearly doubling within two weeks. Transport fares rose sharply across Ibadan, Abuja, and Lagos. The Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria, PETROAN, warned that petrol could reach N2,000 per litre and diesel N3,000 if the war continued.
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