By Chioma Obinagwam
Kasimu Garba Kurfi, Managing Director and CEO (MD/CEO) of APT Securities and Funds Limited, has forecasted that the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) market capitalisation will surpass ₦100 trillion by the end of 2025, driven by stable foreign exchange rates, robust corporate performance, and heightened primary market activity.
Speaking at the Mid-Year 2025 Capital Market Review and Outlook hosted by the Capital Market Correspondents Association of Nigeria (CAMCAN) in Lagos, Kurfi predicted a stronger market performance in the second half of 2025.
Confiance News gathered that he attributed this to anticipated declines in inflation, a potential reduction in the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN’s) Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), and lower treasury bill yields. Additionally, he expects the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) to rise and the exchange rate to remain stable, fostering a positive environment for equities.
Kurfi highlighted that the NGX is set to outperform its 2024 results, with a short-term market correction paving the way for sustained growth. He noted that financial institutions are expected to continue recapitalisation efforts, while primary market activities will remain robust.
A key factor driving the 2025 market rally, according to Kurfi, is the elimination of foreign exchange-related losses for companies. In 2024, listed firms recorded pre-tax FX losses of ₦507.2 billion, compared to ₦359 billion in 2023, totaling ₦867 billion. However, in 2025, stable exchange rates have resulted in zero FX losses, significantly boosting investor confidence.
The enactment of the Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act (NIIRA 25) has spurred a rally in insurance stocks, while the CBN’s bank recapitalisation programme attracted over ₦2 trillion in 2024, with similar inflows expected in 2025. Foreign capital inflows also surged to $5.6 billion in Q1 2025, a 67.42% increase from $3.4 billion in Q1 2024. Foreign portfolio investment now constitutes 27.08% of market participation (₦1.14 trillion) as of July 2025, up from less than 10% in 2023. Domestic investors, however, continue to dominate, contributing 72.92% (₦3 trillion).
Market turnover has improved significantly, averaging ₦25–₦30 billion daily, compared to ₦5 billion in prior years. The NGX turnover reached ₦4.19 trillion in H1 2025, up from ₦2.60 trillion in H1 2024. Total market capitalisation grew to ₦126.73 trillion from ₦112.6 trillion in December 2024, with equity capitalisation rising to ₦92.73 trillion by August 7, 2025, from ₦62.66 trillion at the end of 2024. The All-Share Index (ASI) climbed 41.61% to 146,569.35 basis points from 102,926.40 points in December 2024.
Confiance News also learnt that sectoral performance has been strong, with several indices outperforming the ASI. The Nigerian Consumer Goods Index led with an 81.11% gain, followed by the Insurance Index (74.18%), NGX Lotus II (73.34%), Banking Index (48.15%), Pension Index (52.72%), and Industrial Goods Index (53.89%).
Kurfi advised investors to focus on blue-chip stocks with strong fundamentals and insurance companies, particularly those diversifying into asset management and pension fund administration. He also recommended diversifying portfolios with fixed-income instruments to balance risk, emphasizing that the capital market remains the best hedge against inflation and naira devaluation in the current economic climate.
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