What Dangote’s 10% refinery listing on NGX means for Nigeria’s economy

By Chioma Obinagwam

Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man and founder of Dangote Group, announced plans to list between 5% and 10% of his $20 billion Dangote Petroleum Refinery on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) within the next 12 months.

Confiance News learnt that it was unveiled in an October 20, 2025, interview with S&P Global. This follows the refinery’s ramp-up from 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) to a targeted 1.4 million bpd—surpassing India’s Jamnagar complex as the world’s largest. The move caps a decade of $25 billion investment, transforming Nigeria from a fuel importer to a potential exporter.

Why list?
Dangote’s rationale is multifaceted. Primarily, it injects vital liquidity to service the refinery’s $3.65 billion debt and fuel expansion into petrochemicals, including a China-based venture and boosted polypropylene output to 1.5 million metric tonnes annually. “We don’t want to keep more than 65–70%,” Dangote stated, emphasizing strategic partnerships—especially with Middle Eastern investors—to dilute family ownership while retaining control (he holds ~83%, NNPC 7.2%). Echoing listings of Dangote Cement and Sugar, it promotes transparency, broadens investor access, and counters monopoly accusations that plagued the project. Delayed from Q1 2025 due to operational teething, the IPO now aligns with 2026 timelines, per June Afreximbank updates.

How it happens
Shares will release gradually, calibrated to market depth and appetite, via NGX’s standard IPO process—prospectus filing, SEC approval, and roadshows. Valuations could hit $20–25 billion for the refinery, potentially dual-listing on London’s LSE for global reach. NNPC may hike its stake post-demonstration of full capacity, but Dangote insists on proving viability first.

X erupted with reactions.
Financial analyst @olumidecapital hailed it as a “capital market booster shot,” boosting NGX liquidity and investor confidence. @ennyola0015 called it a “strategic masterstroke,” likening it to Saudi Aramco’s model for valuation credibility, while noting Dangote’s control retention. Netizens were polarized: @bivins1 criticized the low stake as liquidity-poor, enabling manipulations like Dangote Cement’s. Skeptic @NejeebBello quipped, “Sell 1%—that’d exceed N40 billion needs,” questioning expansion funding. Optimists like @Idjack12 warned of scams but celebrated public ownership as “inclusive growth.” Earlier 2024 drama resurfaced, with @PremiumTimesng recalling Dangote’s NNPC buyout offer amid monopoly jabs.

Economic ripple effects: This could propel NGX’s market cap past N100 trillion ($60 billion), reclaiming Dangote’s issuer throne from BUA. By slashing Nigeria’s $10 billion annual fuel import bill, it conserves forex, stabilizes naira, and curbs inflation (currently 34%). Confiance News gathered that export surpluses may add $25 billion in revenue, spurring jobs in refining (already easing union tensions post-800 layoffs) and petrochemicals. Yet risks loom: High interest rates (30%) and FX volatility could deter investors, per @Necessary_Cho’s 2024 tweet. Overall, it’s a pivot toward self-reliance, but success hinges on execution amid economic headwinds.

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