The intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran, spotlighted by Israel’s June 2025 airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, has transformed their decades-long “shadow war” into an open confrontation, raising alarms about regional instability and its ripple effects on global peace and the emerging multipolar world order.
Underlying causes
The Israel-Iran rivalry took root during Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution, which birthed an ideology opposing Israel’s existence as a “Zionist entity.” Iran’s backing of proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas aimed to counter Israel’s regional dominance, while Israel, perceiving Iran’s nuclear ambitions as an existential threat, employed cyberattacks, assassinations, and airstrikes to disrupt Iran’s nuclear program and its allies in Syria and Lebanon. The 2002 exposure of Iran’s clandestine nuclear activities escalated tensions, as Tehran resisted international calls to halt uranium enrichment. As Dr. Trita Parsi, a Middle East expert at the Quincy Institute, notes, “Iran’s nuclear program has been the central fault line, with Israel viewing it as a non-negotiable red line, while Iran sees it as a matter of sovereignty and deterrence.”
Triggers
The current escalation stems from Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, supported by Iran, which killed over 1,200 and ignited the Gaza war. Iran’s proxies—Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi militias—intensified attacks, prompting Israel’s retaliatory strikes, including the April 2024 bombing of Iran’s Damascus consulate, killing seven Iranian officers, and the September 2024 assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Iran responded with missile barrages, including 180 ballistic missiles in October 2024, leading to Israel’s June 2025 strikes on Natanz, which killed nuclear scientists and military leaders. “The tit-for-tat strikes reflect a dangerous cycle of escalation with no clear off-ramp,” warns Dr. Suzanne Maloney, vice president at the Brookings Institution.
Implications for global peace
The Israel-Iran conflict threatens to destabilize the Middle East, disrupt global oil markets, and draw in major powers. The U.S., bolstering Israel with missile defense systems, faces heightened tensions with Iran, while Russia and China’s strategic alignment with Tehran complicates diplomacy. “This conflict risks becoming a regional conflagration, with proxies and superpowers entangled in a volatile mix,” says Ambassador Wendy Sherman, former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State. The escalation, fueled by Iran’s missile advancements and Israel’s unilateral actions, could lead to thousands of casualties and exacerbate humanitarian crises in Gaza and Lebanon.
Impact on the New World Order
The conflict highlights the shift toward a multipolar world, where Iran’s alignment with Russia and China challenges U.S.-led frameworks. Israel’s strained ties with Arab states, despite past normalization efforts, weaken Western influence. “The Israel-Iran clash is a microcosm of a fracturing global order, where non-Western powers assert autonomy, and traditional diplomacy struggles,” observes Dr. John Mearsheimer, a prominent realist scholar. The failure of U.S.-led nuclear talks underscores the limitations of Western dominance, emboldening radical actors and risking further instability.
Confiance News gathered that the Israel-Iran war, driven by ideological divides and recent provocations, threatens global peace and accelerates a multipolar shift. Urgent diplomatic intervention is critical to avert a wider catastrophe, as Sherman emphasizes: “Without de-escalation, we’re on a path to a conflict no one can fully control.”
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